ee BetOdds24 | Have Mahrez & Manchester City finally turned the corner?

Have Mahrez & Manchester City finally turned the corner?

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Two impressive performances on the spin bode well for the Cityzens, but consistency for the Algerian and club as a whole remains the goal

While it seems strange to laud Manchester City’s goalless encounter with FC Porto on Tuesday night, Pep Guardiola’s side were utterly dominant at the Estadio do Dragao and deserved the win.

Cynics would point to the fact that a stalemate was always going to be a convenient result between both sides but the flow of the game presents a different argument, given the front-foot nature of Pep’s team in Portugal, something the Spaniard seemed overly keen to emphasise in his post-match presser.

Frankly, the ex-Barcelona boss was right. His team’s inability to score at the Dragao was a mixture of brilliant goalkeeping from Agustin Marchesin, poor finishing and aware defending from the hosts — the case in point being Zaidu Sanusi smartly dropping to the goal-line to clear Raheem Sterling’s goal-bound effort in the opening half.

City edged every attacking metric on the night — possession (68-32 percent), shots (18-2) and Expected Goals (2.1-0.1) — to affirm their superiority against the Portuguese giants.

The fact the Cityzens achieved the performance without Kevin De Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez gave it a better feel, due to the rested pair’s importance to the team’s attack. Even though the Belgium playmaker gets the lion share praise, particularly last season where he equalled Thierry Henry’s assists record, Mahrez’s influence was oddly underrated.

The Algeria star’s 20 goal contributions may have been his third-best return in English football — he posted G+A of 28 in 15/16 and 22 in 17/18 — but he achieved last season’s in 21 starts. For context, he started 36 games in Leicester City’s title-winning season and 34 in his final campaign with the Foxes.

A greater dive into 19/20’s numbers amplify the North African impact in the Premier League. While Mahrez ranked sixth for total Shot-Creating Actions, SCAs per 90 placed him second behind teammate KDB. He fared equally well for Goal-Creating Actions, ranking second with 31, three behind the Belgian but topped the entire division for GCA’s per 90 — 1.44 to KDB’s 1.10 and David Silva’s 0.99.

As such, the upshot of the wide attacker’s drop off at the start of 2020/21 and Silva’s departure to Real Sociedad meant Pep’s side had undertones of becoming a one-man team that relied on the ex-Chelsea man for creativity.

Man City have looked far from their best in attack, with Mahrez especially frustrating.Guardiola's team have mostly failed the eye test but what do the numbers reveal about City's struggles and Mahrez's lessened output? #MCFC #MCILIVvia @GoalAfricahttps://t.co/RO7knenY5o

Mahrez’s great decline and City’s general issues in the final third was examined before their encounter with Liverpool last month, a reality that seemed unusual for a Pep team.

Thus, it is for this reason their smashing 5-0 win over Burnley last Saturday and authoritative showing in Portugal on Tuesday will have impressed the former Barcelona and Bayern Munich manager.

The Algerian netted a stunning hat-trick against the Clarets at the Etihad — his maiden treble for the side to end a five-year wait since scoring three in Leicester’s 3-0 win at Swansea City in December 2015 — and created a staggering six shooting opportunities for the home side.

Six key passes was a game-high for Pep’s team and the winger also topped the shot-creating actions log with seven, along with...KDB.

Man City had xG of 2.8 against Sean Dyche’s struggling side, which was their highest Expected Goals tally in the league this season and indeed in all competitions. The mere fact that their 2.1 xG vs Porto on Tuesday night, without KDB and Mahrez, was their second-highest projected goals count so far was striking.

At this stage last season — after nine league games and five group games in the Champions League — Pep’s troops had recorded xG greater than 2.8 on six occasions, which only puts this year’s difficulty under the microscope.

The inconsistency in neither fashioning out quality opportunities regularly nor scoring unrelentingly this season has been odd from the outside looking in and frustrating to the City players, according to Mahrez.

“We are happy to score a lot of goals and create a lot of chances,” the maverick told BBC Sport after City dismantled Burnley. “When you play well and you don't score in games you have a bit of frustration but we have to keep working.

“It's always good to score goals so I am very happy but the most important thing was to win and create chances.”

Again, cynics may try to water down the improvement in the last days, given both came against an out-off-form Burnley team (who City habitually thrash in Manchester anyway) and a largely unambitious Porto side seemingly uninterested to go forward against Pep’s team.

Indeed, they will also be eager to remind Guardiola that his team’s soft underbelly in preventing counter-attacks was still brutally exposed in that 2-0 defeat by Tottenham Hotspur on November 21.

However, it will be up to the Cityzens to silence critics and produce performances seen against the Clarets and Portuguese giants regularly over the coming weeks.

Curiously, the underlying numbers show that Man City have improved defensively, somewhat evidenced by their xGA (Expected Goals Against) of 9.6, the best in the division. The problem has been in attack, substantiated by their eighth-place rank on the xG table and the pair of games on the trot — despite not scoring at Porto — bodes well.

Guardiola’s team sit seven points adrift of Spurs but have a game in hand at home to Aston Villa to play, so a title challenge can’t be ruled out just yet.

Provided that Mahrez builds on that showing vs Burnley and the team’s level at both ends of the pitch continues to grow steadily, then the Cityzens may well regain the fear factor that’s apparently been lost in the last 12 to 18 months.

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